The UK Job List That Expires on 31 December — and the Report Deciding It Lands This Month

UK Temporary Shortage List 2026 If you are a welder, a bricklayer, an air-conditioning engineer or a chef looking at UK jobs with visa sponsorship, there is one document you should be watching, and almost nobody is writing about it in language aimed at you.

The UK’s Temporary Shortage List — the only thing keeping most non-graduate jobs sponsorable at all — expires on 31 December 2026. The report that decides which occupations survive into 2027 is due from the Migration Advisory Committee this month. As of writing it has not been published.

Here is what that actually means for you, including the part the employer-focused guides leave out: being on the list and being able to use the list are two very different things.

Quick answer: The UK Temporary Shortage List (TSL) lets a small set of RQF Level 3–5 jobs be sponsored under the Skilled Worker visa, despite the general skill threshold rising to degree level in July 2025. Both the TSL and the Immigration Salary List are scheduled to expire on 31 December 2026. The MAC’s final recommendations are due in July 2026.

First, what changed in July 2025

On 22 July 2025, the UK raised the Skilled Worker skill threshold to RQF Level 6 — degree level. Roles below that stopped being sponsorable for new overseas hires. Danielle Cohen Immigration puts the number of occupations removed at over 180, spanning hospitality, construction and administration.

The general salary threshold moved the same day, from £38,700 to £41,700 a year — or the going rate for your occupation code, whichever is higher. GOV.UK is blunt about the arithmetic: a £42,000 salary fails if the going rate for the role is £45,000.

Two lists were left as narrow exceptions for medium-skilled work:

• The Immigration Salary List (ISL) — an expanded version of the old shortage list, offering a lower threshold of £33,400 and a discount to 80% of the going rate.
• The interim Temporary Shortage List (TSL) — introduced through Statement of Changes HC 997 as paragraph SW 6.1A of Appendix Skilled Worker, covering RQF 3–5 roles that the Department for Business and Trade and the Treasury identified as important to the UK’s Industrial Strategy.

Adult social care went further: overseas recruitment for care and senior care workers closed entirely on 22 July 2025. Workers already in the UK can switch into those roles until 22 July 2028, after which the route shuts for good.

The catch nobody puts in the headline

Here is where most articles about the TSL stop being useful to an actual applicant.

Being on the Temporary Shortage List does not give you a salary discount. Unlike the old Shortage Occupation List, the TSL offers no reduction. As Danielle Cohen Immigration sets out, sponsors must still meet the general threshold of £41,700 and the standard going rate for the job, whichever is higher. The list restores your eligibility; it does nothing about your price.

TSL and ISL roles cannot bring dependants. The MAC’s Stage 1 report confirms that the July 2025 rules blocked dependants for new applicants in RQF 3–5 occupations, and that this applies to both lists. No spouse. No children.

Now sit those two facts next to each other. A UK employer looking at a bricklayer must pay at least £41,700 to sponsor from overseas, plus a sponsor licence (£611 for small businesses and charities, £1,682 for medium and large ones), plus the Immigration Skills Charge, plus the Health Surcharge — for a worker who cannot bring his family and whose route may not lead to settlement at all.

That is why you should be sceptical of anyone advertising “UK visa sponsorship jobs for welders” as though the list makes it routine. The list makes it legal. It does not make it likely.

What the MAC has already said

The Migration Advisory Committee is the independent body advising the government on migration. It does not make the rules — the Home Office does. Its chair is Professor Brian Bell.

The MAC published its Stage 1 report on 9 October 2025. It reviewed 151 occupations at RQF 3–5 and shortlisted 82 to carry into Stage 2. Of those 82, the Electronic Immigration Network’s coverage notes the range runs from actors to welders — bricklayers, air-conditioning and refrigeration installers, aircraft maintenance trades, boat and ship builders, and building and civil engineering technicians all made the cut.

Two codes did not: 5232 vehicle body builders and repairers and 5233 vehicle paint technicians. They stay on the interim TSL until it expires, but they were dropped at the gateway stage.

The MAC’s design recommendations from Stage 1 tell you where this is heading:

• Occupations should normally sit on the TSL for three years, or an initial 18 months where the sector’s Jobs Plan is thin.
• Visa duration should be three to five years. If ministers decide the TSL is not a settlement route, no extensions beyond five.
• English should be no lower than B1 — although the general Skilled Worker requirement rose to B2 on 8 January 2026 for new applicants.
• No salary discounts for TSL roles, including new entrant rates.
• In-country switching into RQF 6+ roles should be encouraged as a progression path.

And the line that matters most: the MAC stated explicitly that it does not expect all 82 to survive Stage 2. The final list will be shorter. The committee has not said by how much.

Stage 2: what happens next, and when

Stage 2 has been running on a Call for Evidence that opened on 17 October 2025 and closed on 2 February 2026. Note who was allowed to participate: only government organisations and sector representative bodies. Not individual employers, and certainly not workers.

The test each occupation must pass has three parts. Is there genuine, structural shortage evidence? Is migration a sensible response, or could training and domestic recruitment fix it? And does the sector have a credible Jobs Plan — a workforce strategy showing real investment in training UK workers, developed with government, with exploitation risks addressed?

That third test is the killer. The MAC has been clear that a weak or missing Jobs Plan means rejection at Stage 2 even where the shortage evidence is strong. Sectors that are fragmented, dominated by small employers, or carry known exploitation risk — construction and hospitality being the obvious examples — have the hardest case to make, however real their shortages are.

The final report is due July 2026. The MAC has said it expects its recommendations to be considered and acted upon before the 31 December 2026 expiry. The Home Office then decides. It is not obliged to accept anything.

What 31 December 2026 actually means

Be precise about this, because a lot of panic writing is not.

If your occupation drops off, or the scheme lapses without replacement:

• Existing visa holders are not deported. People already sponsored can complete the permission they hold.
• New Certificates of Sponsorship stop. Employers cannot sponsor new overseas hires in that occupation.
• The ISL discount disappears. Immigration Rules abolishing the ISL are due by 31 December 2026 at the latest. From that point the 80% going-rate discount is gone; roles surviving on any successor list face the full rate.
• The Home Office can act earlier. Occupations can be removed from the interim TSL before December if compliance problems arise. The list is not a guarantee for even one day.

So the honest framing is: this is a closing window for new applicants, not a mass expulsion.

If you are overseas and trade-qualified: the realistic read

You are being asked to gamble months of effort on a list you have no influence over, that expires in under six months, and that even in its best case cannot get you a salary discount or bring your family.

That does not mean give up. It means be clear-eyed:

1. Find your SOC 2020 code first, not last. Everything turns on it. Not your job title — the code, matched to the duties you actually perform. GOV.UK’s CASCOT tool will help you find it.
2. Check both the live GOV.UK Temporary Shortage List page and the going rate for that code. If the going rate is above £41,700, that higher number is your real threshold.
3. Ask the honest question: would a UK employer realistically pay a foreign hire in your trade £41,700-plus, when the domestic market rate may be well below it? If the answer is no, the list is irrelevant to you and no agent can change that.
4. Check the employer holds a sponsor licence before you invest anything. GOV.UK publishes the register of approved sponsors. Look it up yourself.
5. Look at routes that are actually open to your skill level. Germany’s Opportunity Card, New Zealand’s Trades and Technician pathway from 24 August 2026, and Canada’s category-based draws all treat trades qualifications more generously than the post-2025 UK Skilled Worker route does.

The scam pattern to expect around this

Whenever a list has a public expiry date, a certain kind of agent gets to work. Watch for these:

• “Apply before December, list is closing!” — You cannot apply because of the list. You apply because a licensed sponsor offered you a job. The list only determines whether that job is eligible. No sponsor, no application, deadline or not.
• “We’ll get your job coded as a TSL occupation.” — SOC codes describe duties. Miscoding a role is a compliance failure that gets licences revoked, and the Home Office has intensified sponsor audits and salary verification.
• “TSL sponsorship leads to settlement in 5 years.” — Not established. The MAC deliberately declined to make a firm recommendation on settlement, setting out arguments both ways. Anyone stating this as fact is inventing it.
• “You can bring your family on a shortage-list visa.” — You cannot. Dependants are blocked for new applicants in RQF 3–5 roles.

Key Takeaways

• The TSL and ISL both expire 31 December 2026. The MAC’s final report is due July 2026 and had not been published at the time of writing.
• 82 occupations reached Stage 2 out of 151 reviewed. The MAC has said the final list will be shorter than 82.
• Vehicle body builders (5232) and vehicle paint technicians (5233) were already dropped at Stage 1.
• The TSL gives eligibility, not affordability. £41,700 or the going rate, whichever is higher, with no discounts.
• No dependants on RQF 3–5 roles. B2 English for new Skilled Worker applicants since 8 January 2026.
• Weak sector Jobs Plans sink occupations regardless of shortage evidence — construction and hospitality are most exposed.
• Existing visa holders can finish their permission. The cliff is for new sponsorship.
• The MAC advises; the Home Office decides. Nothing is settled until the Immigration Rules change.

Where to verify this yourself

The live Temporary Shortage List sits on GOV.UK, and that page is the only authoritative source for current occupation codes and pay bands. The MAC’s Stage 1 report is published on GOV.UK, and the Stage 2 report will appear on the same site. Check both directly rather than trusting any blog’s copy of a list that is designed to change — including this one.

Disclaimer: VisaRiz is an informative blog and is not associated with any government or official department. This article is general information, not immigration advice, and does not guarantee a job, a visa or sponsorship. UK immigration rules change frequently and the position described here may have moved. Always confirm current requirements on GOV.UK or with a regulated immigration adviser before acting.

FAQ

What is the UK Temporary Shortage List? It is a time-limited list of RQF Level 3–5 occupations that can still be sponsored under the Skilled Worker visa, even though the general skill threshold rose to degree level on 22 July 2025. It was created as paragraph SW 6.1A of Appendix Skilled Worker.

When does the Temporary Shortage List expire? Both the interim TSL and the Immigration Salary List are scheduled to expire on 31 December 2026. The Home Office can also remove individual occupations before that date.

Does being on the Temporary Shortage List give a lower salary threshold? No. Unlike the old Shortage Occupation List, the TSL offers no salary discount. Sponsors must still pay at least £41,700 or the going rate for the occupation code, whichever is higher.